The mood in Russia about the Ukraine war is "much less pessimistic" than Western media may be reporting, says Dimitri Simes, one of the top American experts on Russia, president and CEO of the Center for the National Interest, and publisher of its foreign policy magazine, The National Interest.
Simes, who was born in Moscow and speaks fluent Russian, spent more than two weeks in Russia meeting and talking with the country’s leaders and citizens.
Some of his observations from Moscow:
The mood in Russia is "much less pessimistic" than accounts in Western media.
Disappointment and skepticism regarding the failure of Russia’s initial assault on Ukraine has morphed into a "tacit acceptance" of a long war, with more limited aims in the east and south.
Many Russians have taken at face value comments by US and Western leaders that the purpose of the war is to weaken Russia, and there is increasing acceptance of the view that Russia is at war with the US-led Western alliance, not just Ukraine.
The political opposition is sizable, perhaps in the "hundreds of thousands," but a "significant majority" support Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin also faces pressure from hardliners who promote an even more aggressive posture toward the West, and fault the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for being overly "Westernized" and accommodating, at the expense of ties with Asia — not unlike the criticism that former Iran President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif faced from their hardliners over the Iran nuclear deal.
In Moscow, restaurants are full, shops and pharmacies are well stocked, and there is more hard currency in the system, at least for now, due to high energy prices.
"This may not be sustainable," however, as sanctions continue to take their toll on the economy, and many entrepreneurs, tech experts and other professionals with transferrable skills look to leave the country.
And on the Middle East:
With regard to Iran, Moscow is "not in the driver’s seat" and can’t block a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), if there is a deal, and therefore "can’t be more Iranian than the Iranians."
With regard to Israel, there is frustration in some circles with the increasing Israeli tilt toward Ukraine, that Moscow has cultivated close ties with Jerusalem at the expense of relations with Iran, and may be willing to explore other options with Iran, if Israel veers closer to Ukraine (Ben Caspit reports that Israel is ready for that possibility — see below).
And "there are few illusions" about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking to take advantage of Russia’s predicament to advance Turkey's goals in Syria and reset ties with the US and NATO. "It’s not a game the Russians like," says Simes, but there is little they can do about it.
Read: Simes’s April 26 interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov here.
Listen: Our March 10 podcast interview with Simes here.
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Ben Caspit goes behind the scenes of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s high-stakes phone calls to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week. Upon Zelenskyy’s request, Bennett pushed Putin to allow the evacuation of the women and children from a besieged factory in Mariupol.
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In the past month, Sisi has reactivated a presidential pardon committee, and 41 political prisoners have been released from pre-trial detention. The Muslim Brotherhood, which has many of its key figures behind bars, has so far remained silent on Sisi's invitation for dialogue.
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